 |
| Still flying! Slava Ukraini! |
A couple of days ago the most hopeful thing I could think was that Mr Putin's seizure of Ukraine could very well be the beginning of his own downfall -- on the theory that Russia is not capable of garrisoning Ukraine, and Belarus, and Chechnya, and Kazakhstan, and all the other places simultaneously. Also that the more the Russian people see of Ukraine, the more they would decide to be like Ukrainians than like Russians.
Now I wonder if a Russian failure to speedily subdue Ukraine -- or dare one hope, fail entirely -- will bring the same result even more speedily.
Also, it does feel like the first Twitter war, doesn't it? I don't follow Twitter very extensively, but what it offers seems more immediate that anything the news networks have been offering. (Not that I follow them too closely either, so could be wrong all round)
Update, February 28: Is this crisis also becoming a win for President Biden?
In February the White House did three things very loudly. One, it began declaring that Russia was absolutely about to invade Ukraine. Two, it declared no American troops would be involved. Three, it declared the US would support Ukraine.
All three exposed Biden to criticism. One: Nonsense, Putin ain't crazy, and armoured divisions don't roll across Europe any more. Two: Weakness! Biden's unilateral disarmament represents American weakness! Three: Ineffectual. All aid short of help, typical.
All three policies now look good. One: 'nuff said. Two: Americans reasonably appreciate their troops not being thrown into every war. Also: thermonuclear war is worth avoiding. Also, looks like American troops may not be needed. Three: the support that the American-led coalition is giving Ukraine is really helping Ukraine, is really devastating Russia, and is really uniting and toughening the western alliance.
Of course, all three successes are built on the successes of Ukraine in mounting such effective and inspirational resistance to the invasion. (Though it's not over!) Still, the Biden administration seems to have read the situation accurately, anticipated wisely, and publicly placed itself in all the right positions.
Isn't it reassuring that there seems to be a non-crazy person in the White House, calmly executing a long strategy that actually works? (Caveat: American politics/media being what it is, don't expect this analysis to become widely held in the United States!)
Update, March 4. I saw a Twitter -- unsaved, now gone -- that said, more or less: "Can't believe it's taken me six year to get a Ph.D and now everyone on twitter has got one in Eastern European geopolitics in four days." After I stopped laughing, I thought it was worth remembering.
Image:
