So far, on the key survey question from yesterday -- "will Covid-19 fundamentally change our world? versus, "will things mostly get back to normal? -- "change everything" has opened up a 66/33% lead over "back to normal." The survey remains open; to shift these numbers, click the link above.
Some responses re #2, the open-ended comment item: (Not everyone chose to answer this)
This is a tough one, because I want to believe that we will see the value of the environmental benefits realized during the pandemic, as well as the utility of a basic income program. I also hope that "we're all in this together" wins out over finger-pointing and blame. I do think many of us will realize the value of both slowing down and focusing on basics, as well as of time spent with those we love. (These are the musings of someone who has the privileges of continuing to work and of living in the country where distancing comes easily.) I just know that humans also have an enormous capacity to ignore long-term threats, and to revert to what is easy and familiar. And then there's the image I can't get out of my head, of Homer Simpson, after being spared from death, saying that he'll live every moment to his fullest...cut to him on the couch eating pork rinds and watching bowling.
More online shopping, more non-air trips - the airlines have done themselves no favours - bad refunds, cancelling flights without a plan for people to get home
Faith in institutions of governance will be shaken with varying results in different places. In global south autocracies and klepto states may be unsustainable. What replaces them will be more local and more efficient. In global north, one result may be sweeping away of our current massive centralised bureaucracies in favour of more localised, more efficient, more nimble and responsive service delivery — in hospitals and schools, for example.
Less flying more vc [vc = virtual communication, I guess?]
I foresee: decreased unnecessary travel (a lot of travel will come to be seen as unnecessary); slowing or stalling globalization; and disruption to established industries and corporations, and ways of working and doing business.
Full disclaimer - I have no expertise, and am usually wrong about major world events. I also don't know if this is a cynical take or an optimistic one, but I do think things will get back to normal, or very close to it. I think that humanity invests an enormous amount of effort and ingenuity into assuring its own comfort, and we don't much like change: I can imagine more investment in incremental changes like more automatic doors and touchless shopping options, but I think we continue to do things like fly to Germany to meetings because we want to. And there will be enough money in encouraging people to do so that making it viable again will become a scientific and engineering priority.
I think your point in the post is bang on: I'm on a flight every two weeks, and I'm just an academic (but in a travel-intensive sub-field). Holding meetings and events via Zoom isn't always as great, but I must admit, I would be surprised if I returned to the level of travel I used to. Some events will probably never bounce back from this, but more importantly, I think we are going to become better at remote events.In the realm of aspirational change -- what we might like to see change as a result of Covid-19, rather than what changes we expect -- the most interesting I have seen is environmentalist Bill McKibben's proposal in the New Yorker: that all the vast bailout monies that are about to flow be made conditional on the recipients (banks, airlines, oil companies...) agreeing to meet the targets set out in the Paris Climate Accords and promptly providing clear plans as to how they will do that.
Now, that could have changed the world.
