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| One month. 185 to 154 |
Party leadership contests in Japan always seem to be studiously ignored by Canadian strategists and commentators, but I find them fascinating.
Shigeru Ishiba, who was selected as Liberal-Democratic party leader and prime minister of Japan in the fall of 2024, began losing support in public opinion and by-election results early in 2025. He resisted resignation and considered calling a snap election but finally resigned as party leader September 7, 2025. Potential leadership candidate began jockeying for position. A twelve-day leadership contest began on September 20.
Canadians, are you amazed already? In real parliamentary democracies, a leadership choice takes twelve days!
On October 3, just under a million LD party-members (longtime members, not the instant-members who dominate Canadian leadership races) and all LD members of the legislature voted. The mass membership votes determined 50% of the outcome and the elected MPs provided the other 50%.
No candidate secured a majority on October 3. On October 4 the MPs alone (plus one vote per constituency as determined from the October 3 vote) voted to determine a winner between the two strongest candidates in the October 3 results.
Sanae Takaichi won the leadership on October 4 by a vote of 185 to 156 -- 54% -- so she became president of the LD party -- equivalent to what Canadians call party leader. Parliament will meet on October 14, and the LD controls enough parliamentary seats to ensure Sanae Takaichi will become prime minister.
One month plus one week to determine a new leader.
No months-long, million-dollar "campaign" determined by which campaign organization buys the most party "memberships" -- which become meaningless the moment the race ends. Those who seek leadership have a real incentive to get into parliament, not to avoid it. And as previously demonstrated in Britain, India, etc., women can win!
Most important, a real chain of accountability. The new leader, chosen by caucus, remains fully accountable to caucus. Like her predecessor, she can be removed and replaced by the same process that elected her should she fail to satisfy Parliament and public opinion.
Meanwhile in Canada:
- The NDP, though it can hold the balance of power in the Canadian parliament if it wishes, has essentially dropped out of politics for six months while a bunch of candidates and their hired strategy companies rush around the country raising money to buy up party memberships.
- Rumours circulate that Pierre Poilievre is at risk in his upcoming Conservative party leadership review, so he's as preoccupied as ever with cultivating his base and selling new memberships. No doubt the strategists are raising money like mad.
- In Ontario, both the Liberal Party and the Ontario NDP are essentially in the same position: more focussed on endless and expensive internal leadership struggles than on their role in providing a legislative opposition. It is to weep.
