Is 1914, not 1919, the true analogy to the crisis of 2020?

Ged Martin makes the suggestion here:

The real comparison today is not with 1939, when everybody knew war was coming, but with the sudden and unforeseen catastrophe of 1914 which permanently changed the world  ....  The casualty lists from the Marne in September rammed home the grim truth that the struggle would be long and costly, both in lives and in resources. History never repeats itself exactly, but Wuhan has been our Sarajevo, and 1914, not the Blitz, is the parallel for this crisis.