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Three
It's an opportunity to change the world for the better. It *could* mean big changes; so often, I hear that X can't be changed because "The Y Industry/Lobby is too powerful," now we've got a chance to reset or radically alter the worst aspects of capitalism, to make a better world.
Following WWII, we made some great changes, creating the welfare state, nationalized healthcare, and other reforms. It was when we created the world that Harry Leslie Smith wanted us to have. But, even if the changes are smaller, I do think there's a good chance we'll see major positive changes. A greater emphasis on local food, and reduced air travel, would mean great things for the environment. Legitimizing more work from home means great things for disabled people who struggle in the economy.
But I'm hoping the biggest difference is social. A large group of people, surviving a catastrophe together, can mean people being nicer, and kinder, and more community-oriented. Instead of social media being where people complain and start fights, it could become a tool for boosting morale. People may decide life is too short and precious for that kind of nastiness. Every historical era is flawed, and I wouldn't want to live in any other era but now, but - I do get the sense that the 1920s had a lot of optimism.
I get the sense that the UK voting in a Labour majority in 1945 and supporting massive public projects reflected optimism. I'm hazier on what happened following the great European plagues, but my sense is that the survivors brought in the high middle ages and the ambition of the renaissance. It's early still. But my sense is that we can emerge from this with a "never again" attitude, appreciate the value of being able to enjoy what civilization has to offer, and be more concerned about those who are less fortunate. I've no idea what actual changes it will bring about, but even if the changes are slow and small, I think it will inspire a generation or two to want to make humanity better.And:
I do think it is big and systemic. I do think that business travel will not recover, especially as we see the incredible improvements in the skies over China. Cruise ships are like fax machines – finished. Everybody flew to get on one of those. Together, alone, these are fundamental shifts in the aviation world. This will affect options to do ... pleasure travel.Update, April 1: And one more:
I believe that there will be some changes such as building more redundancy, increasing institutional history, and robustness in various systems. However, we will return very much to our normal social patterns in a few years as the memory of the current events gradually recedes.
Those predicting major changes coming from the pandemic now outnumber the "not so much" crowd 70-30.
