Monday, October 26, 2015

Buzzfeed: history of Harper's inevitable victory

Why Harper won the election.

Buzzfeed (Canada), as opposed to the mothership, seems to be run a bit less by clickbait chasers, a bit more by former political journalists having to slum it for a while.

Viz this lovely takedown, credited to Buzzfeed Political Editor Paul McLeod.  It "apologizes" for being late, but goes on to report on the brilliant insights available in the 2013 Canadian work of pop polisci, The Big Shift.  In The Big Shift pollster Darrell Bricker and journo John Ibbitson explained how Stephen Harper had made the Conservatives in the party that would dominate the rest of the 21st century
“We believe that fortune favours the Harper government in the next election,” the duo write.
“But we don’t believe this is about the next election. We believe it is about the next decade, the next generation, and beyond. We believe that the Conservative Party will be to the twenty-first century what the Liberal party was to the twentieth: the perpetually dominant party, the natural governing party.”
The Big Shift concludes the Tories are home free forever -- because the Liberal Party is moribund, because power has shifted to Alberta where "robust growth is a constant," because the vital immigrant vote is guaranteed to the Conservatives, and because Harper's government has been scandal-free.

Prediction is hard. Even about the present.

Update, October 29:  Ibbitson and Bricker insist they still have it right, but it may take a little longer.
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